Water demand could increase 64 percent by 2050

Water demand could increase 64 percent by 2050

Water shortages loom on the horizon for the Chicago area unless businesses and government agencies plan effectively, the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) says in a report.

Demand for water in 11 counties of northeastern Illinois could increase as much as 64 percent by mid-century, creating potentially serious shortages, according to the report, which was funded by the Illinois Department of Natural Resources (IDNR).

The region’s economy and well being depend on the availability of water, the report noted. Lake Michigan is one of the world’s largest fresh water resources, but population forecasts indicated parts of the region may suffer deficits in coming years.

The report includes information on an 11-county deep bedrock aquifer and the Fox River Basin’s shallow bedrock aquifer. (An aquifer is a body of geologic material that can supply useful quantities of groundwater to natural springs and water wells.)

With this report northeastern Illinois now has a clear picture showing implications of our water consumption trends, said CMAP executive director Randy Blankenhorn.

“To ensure an adequate supply for residential, commercial and residential needs, we must start now to plan better and conserve more,” he said.

The Regional Water Demand Report is one important step toward a coordinated regional strategy for managing growth to help minimize water shortages in the future, according to Blankenhorn.

The water demand report will influence the 11-county water supply plan that CMAP and its Regional Water Supply Planning Group (RWSPG) are scheduled to complete in mid-2009. The three-year regional study is meant to anticipate and address potential water shortages in Boone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties.

Company owners and business executives can play an important part in planning and conservation efforts, said Tim Loftus, CMAP senior planner for water resources.

There are two business people among the 35 delegates on the planning group. But more business people can participate or at least contact the delegates and get on an e-mail list so they can be better informed on the issues, he said.

CMAP has a list of 14 different water conservation techniques such as ultra-low-flush toilets and using less water on landscaping, which Loftus said can apply to business to varying degrees depending on the type of business.

“But the thrust is to increase efficiency and conservation and reduce demand,” he said. “It can be difficult for some people to realize so we have tried to raise the attention level to the fact that even though we are sitting next to an apparent ocean of fresh water, we need to be concerned about conservation.”

Loftus called the timing right for the effort here because there have been issues recently of water scarcity in other parts of the United States as well as in other places around the world. It is time to people in this area to be more water conscious and be better water stewards, the CMAP executive said.

The process of compiling the report began in January 2006 in the midst of what he called a drought. An executive order from the governor started the process. This was not the first water supply report but this one came with money since the governor committed $5 million to the process.

“We got great momentum, so the announcement of recent budget cuts by the state has been a bit devastating,” Loftus said.

The regional water supply planning effort has been set back by cuts that were made to help close a $2 billion gap in the FY09 state budget.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich vetoed $2.1 million for water supply planning in the Illinois DNR budget, $400,000 of which would have supported CMAP’s work in leading the regional study.

Equally important, Blankenhorn said, have been cuts to the Illinois State Water Survey, which has the key task of meshing its water supply data with the data CMAP commissioned for its recent report on water demand through 2050.

He said efforts are underway to make up these near-tern funding shortfalls, so that the northeastern Illinois water supply planning effort can proceed through 2009. Blankenhorn also said a long-term solution is required for the state budget problem to ensure that the regional water supply plan can be completed by July 2009 as scheduled.

In the report part of the plan, researchers generated three distinct future scenarios by major user and geographical sub-areas within the region. The first referred to as the CT scenario for current trends assumes that today water withdrawal patterns will basically continue. The second is a less resource intensive (LR) scenario and the third is more resource intensive (MRI).

Each scenario looks to 2050 based on potential usage in homes, businesses, power plants and farms. Variables include air temperature, precipitation, price of water, household income, population density, employment and conservation trends.

Under the MRI scenario, demand would increase by 64.1 percent for a total of 2.4 billions gallons per day (an increase of 949 millions gallons compared to the 2005 baseline level of 1.5 billion gallons per day.

The CT scenario shows a 35.8 percent increase with daily demand rising by 530 million gallons.

If strong conservation measures succeed at reducing consumption, the LRI scenario would see a 7.2 percent increase, only 107.2 million gallons more per day than in 2005.

Water use would increase to 201 gallons per capita each day under the MRI scenario, compared to 169 gallons per capita daily in 2005. Per capita usage under the CT scenario would drop slightly to 166 gallons. Under the LRI scenario, effective conservation measures would reduce daily usage to 131 gallons per day. That would be nearly 23 percent less than in 2005.

Monitoring water use is a key to managing demand, according to the report issued by Southern Illinois University at Carbondale.

That document recommends that the region maintain a “water inventory.” That information would be updated at least annually based on data reflecting potential change in water withdrawal and use. Appropriate pricing of water is also a necessary condition of achieving efficient water use, the report states.

The northeastern Illinois effort is one of two initial pilot studies commissioned by the state. The other is being carried out by the Mahomet Aquifer Consortium in east-central Illinois.

Dan McLeister, Contributing Writer

Posted on Monday, September 08, 2008 (Archive on Monday, September 15, 2008)
Posted by jstoltz Contributed by jstoltz

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