The quadrennial presidential campaign is underway, and with it a promise of change from every candidate. The call for change is not much of a change. Dwight Eisenhower told America “It’s time for a change” in 1952. In 1976, Jimmy Carter positioned himself as “A Leader, for a Change.” Walter Mondale argued that “America Needs a Change” in 1984.

Change also has been a constant theme in the association world. In 1964, a group of senior association CEOs gave thoughtful attention to the changes they most expected to occur by 1975.

Some changes they foresaw came to pass: more advocacy efforts; more collaboration among associations; greater focus on non-dues income; more time-pressed members delegating to staff; associations operating more like business; increased use of the title “president” for chief staff executives.

One major change that the group expected in 1964 didn’t occur: a government take-over of standard-setting and certification. A similar group of senior association CEOs replicated the task in 1994, forecasting change through 2005.

Again, the passage of time proved them right on a number of items: growing global emphasis; growing importance of grassroots advocacy; use of technology to enhance productivity and reduce the number of meetings; growing regulation of associations. And again, one major prediction failed to emerge: dramatic rise in the number of “for-profit” associations.

Perhaps what is most striking is not that the two groups were right on some things and wrong on others, but that they simply did not see or could not imagine the changes that would matter most.

The concerns of the day that held their attention limited their ability to notice innovations emerging at the periphery, such as the World Wide Web, which hit the association world with a fury just a year after the 1994 group met.

I was at that meeting in 1994 and remember only one or two CEOs explaining the potential impact of the Internet, but the others in the group dismissed it as a minor technological advance, something that would impact only the IT staff.

They could not conceive of other possibilities because they were constrained by more familiar and expected changes. They could not connect one trend, the need for better member service and value, with another, seemingly unrelated, “fuzzy” concept like the Internet.

Among the changes that worry association professionals the most today is the impact of social networking. It is hard to ignore the fact that millions of people are connecting online, sharing information and building online communities. Without a doubt, Web 2.0 technologies will have an impact on association life.

But other technologies, most notably telephony and interstate highway and air travel, also have impacted association life. These technologies, and the invention of the modern hotel and convention infrastructure in the post-World War II era, were keys to the explosive growth of associations. If history is any guide, associations benefit from technologies that enable and enhance human connection.

My view is that the biggest change that associations face in the next quarter of a century is not even on our radar yet. Our task is to look beyond the “white noise” of familiar change to listen to the fringe, to discern patterns from the blurry edges that are outside of our normal range of sight and imagination.

When it comes to change, the biggest challenge we face is moving beyond the range of known changes to explore the undiscovered country where imagination meets innovation unfettered from the quotidian burdens of daily management.

Gary LaBranche is president and CEO of The Association Forum. Contact him at labranche@associationforum.org or at 312-924-7070.